Build a cited market-sizing model

Why use this

1. A founder preparing a market discussion may have useful statistics in several files but no clear connection between those figures and the headline opportunity. Reviewers cannot easily tell whether disagreement concerns arithmetic, scope or assumptions.

2. This job could make the model inspectable across its presentation, calculations and citations. Showing alternative assumptions helps a decision-maker see what would need to be true, rather than treating one large number as established demand.

Why an agent / simpler alternative

Useful judgment

Reconcile incompatible market definitions and explain which assumptions drive different scenarios.

Simpler alternative

Use a simple spreadsheet when the market boundary and inputs are already agreed.

Unsuitable when

The analysis would be presented as verified demand or an investment recommendation without qualified review.

Proposed inputs

1. Name

   Market brief

   Owner

   Decision owner

   Minimum scope

   Product boundary, geography, period and customer unit

   Quality check

   Define inclusions and exclusions before calculating

2. Name

   Research pack

   Owner

   Research owner

   Minimum scope

   Permitted statistics with dates, units and source links

   Quality check

   Separate observed data from estimates

Access and setup — proposed or unknown

Proposed minimum

1. Read approved research files and create separate draft outputs; no financial-account access is needed.

Compatibility unknowns

1. Current file-generation, calculation and source-access compatibility are unknown.

External actions requiring approval

1. Sharing confidential assumptions, distributing the pitch or purchasing research needs specific authorization.

Expected deliverable and review checks

Proposed artifact

Scenario workbook, linked headline slides and a source/assumption register.

Critical checks

1. Recalculate totals; align units, geography and dates; trace every slide figure to a workbook cell and source.

Missing output evidence

This overlay adds no new output inspection, execution or validation; consult the referenced canonical source outcome limits.

Failure signals and proposed responses

1. Signal

   Customer counts overlap

   Why it matters

   Adding segments can inflate the result

   Proposed response

   Show overlap explicitly or calculate a non-overlapping alternative.

2. Signal

   Annual revenue mixes with total spending

   Why it matters

   The headline compares incompatible quantities

   Proposed response

   Normalize periods or leave the figures separate.

Effort and cost — unknown

Setup work

1. Agree market boundaries and an assumption vocabulary.

Ongoing review

1. Review sensitive inputs and scenario sensitivity.

Unknowns

1. Data licensing, research effort, export fidelity and service costs are unknown.

First check — proposed, unexecuted

Status

proposed_unexecuted

Synthetic fixture

Invent two customer segments with partial overlap, annual spend assumptions and contrasting geographic scope; propose low/base/high calculations on paper.

Acceptance checks

1. Flag overlap; keep geography consistent; show changed assumptions; label all figures synthetic.

Stop conditions

1. Stop if a required denominator is missing or unsupported figures would be presented as measured demand.

Limits

1. Scenario precision does not establish a market's accessibility, purchase intent or future revenue.