Explain market moves with an annotated chart

Why use this

1. A researcher examining a market chart may see an announcement near a price move and assume the event explains it. Publication time, trading-session boundaries and adjusted-price conventions can change that interpretation.

2. An annotated evidence timeline could make possible catalysts easier to inspect while retaining alternative explanations and timing uncertainty. It would support descriptive review rather than investment advice or a claim that news caused a particular move.

Why an agent / simpler alternative

Useful judgment

Align events and price observations and distinguish plausible context from established causation.

Simpler alternative

Use a standard chart with manually added event dates for a small question.

Unsuitable when

The task requires trading recommendations or causal certainty from temporal coincidence.

Proposed inputs

1. Name

   Market-analysis scope

   Owner

   Researcher

   Minimum scope

   Instrument identity, date range and descriptive question

   Quality check

   Confirm the intended price series and avoid implied trading objectives.

2. Name

   Price and event evidence

   Owner

   Data owner

   Minimum scope

   Dated price records, company announcements and source-linked news

   Quality check

   Record time zones, adjustment basis and publication versus event time.

Access and setup — proposed or unknown

Proposed minimum

1. Read-only supplied data and an offline annotation plan.

Compatibility unknowns

1. Unknown: exact runtime, market-data access, news coverage and interactive-chart tooling.

External actions requiring approval

1. Sharing licensed data, publishing consequential financial claims or making trades.

Expected deliverable and review checks

Proposed artifact

Chart specification and event register with source links, timing and qualified catalyst labels.

Critical checks

1. Events align with the correct trading period.

2. Annotations preserve uncertainty and price-adjustment definitions.

Missing output evidence

No new workflow run or output inspection was performed for this overlay.

Failure signals and proposed responses

1. Signal

   An after-hours announcement is attached to an earlier price move.

   Why it matters

   The visual narrative could imply an impossible sequence.

   Proposed response

   Separate publication time from the prior session and qualify the association.

2. Signal

   Adjusted and unadjusted prices are combined.

   Why it matters

   A discontinuity may be mistaken for market reaction.

   Proposed response

   Use one documented basis or flag the series as incomparable.

Effort and cost — unknown

Setup work

1. Define series conventions and timestamp alignment.

Ongoing review

1. Check annotation provenance and alternative explanations.

Unknowns

1. Unknown: data licensing, missing events and analytical effort.

First check — proposed, unexecuted

Status

proposed_unexecuted

Synthetic fixture

Invented records pair a daytime move with an announcement after market close and mixed adjustment labels.

Acceptance checks

1. Both issues block an unqualified catalyst narrative.

2. No trading conclusion is proposed.

Stop conditions

1. A causal or investment claim exceeds the supplied evidence.

Limits

1. Editorial timeline design; a synthetic timing check does not validate market data or explain returns.